At Least It Doesn’t Mean Literal War

The Democrats’ drive to impeach President Donald Trump seems to gain momentum with every busy 24-hour news cycle.
Subpoenas have been issued to to Trump’s Secretary of State and personal lawyer and various other administration officials, press reports indicate that Australia as well as Ukraine and perhaps other countries were asked for information implicating Trump’s political foes, and the latest polls show the public increasingly approves of impeachment.
Meanwhile, Trump is “tweeting” at a furious pace, demanding that House intelligence committee chairman Rep. Adam Schiff be arrested for treason and warning that the president’s removal from office would “cause a Civil War like fracture in this Nation from which our Country will never heal.”
There’s no telling how it all turns out, but we’ll venture a guess that it doesn’t end with anything like a civil war. Trump has some very die-hard supporters, and they tend to talk tough and own a lot of guns, but they’re unlikely to rise up against the constitutional order to keep Trump in office. Many of them are too old for that sort of nonsense, for one thing, many more have families and jobs and bass boats they won’t to put at risk, and very few of them are so loyal as take up arms against the government.
In the highly unlikely event that 67 Senators vote to convict Trump on what are very likely be several articles of impeachment passed by the House, it will be because of some pretty damned overwhelming proof of high crimes and misdemeanors. At that point a civil war would be another lost cause, and even the southerners don’t have any appetite for another one of those.
Which is not to say things won’t get nasty. With charges of treason flying from both sides the argument is already quite heated, and both sides have enough crazies that some street brawls and gunshots can’t be ruled out. We hope not, but these days it seems all too possible..

If Trump is impeached by the House but not convicted by the Senate he’ll surely gloat about it, and there will be some very sore losers, but in less than 14 months there will be a very hard-fought election to settle the matter. The public can take into account all the information that the Democrats and the courts and the media come up with, and even if it’s not enough to convince a Republican Senator it might well prove more persuasive to the voting public. If the news goes on as it has lately and the trend in the opinion polls continues Trump will be removed from office by constitutional means in the long run, and absent some pretty damned overwhelming proof it was all the work of a “deep state” conspiracy even Trump will have to accept the outcome.
He won’t like it, and will probably make some dangerous noises on the way out, but he won’t get a second civil war to keep him in office. Even if we do, the nation did eventually heal the wounds of the first one.

— Bud Norman

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